I did suspect that the predictability was the real issue… though lots of software companies do Black Friday sales every year… I get bombarded with Emails from companies like Affinity and Telestream for their Black Friday sales for example.
As for not needing a sale, that would depend on who and why they are buying it. Hobbyists and “citizen developers” are a LOT more price sensitive than pros…
A sale can get someone to buy “just in case” they might need it… whereas at full price such people will say since I can develop anyway (or the version I have is good enough for now) I’m not buying until I’m absolutely sure i need to. For the most part we don’t HAVE to have it or have the most current version.
Also sales help with new users making an initial decision on buying the product… For most Pros $300 (or $700) is not THAT significant, but for many (if not most) non-pros who don’t make money with Xojo, price is a significant consideration…
When renewals were 50% less than full price, that alone was a strong enough reason to renew without a sale “just in case”… now it’s not. I know it was a no brainer for me back then and now I debate if I should renew.
For something like Xojo where a significant portion of the user base does not make money with the product (like me), or really need it, sales matter to many.
Sale psychology is the same for software as for most purchases.
If you absolute need something and need it NOW, you buy then sale or not (assuming you have the money), if not you want a good bargain and are a lot less likely to buy without one.