after verification, the influenza mortality rate is 6 -10 % of hospitalized cases, but 0,1 to 0,2 % of all cases. You are correct @Michael Diehr , I misread the stats.
Still, COVID 19 is to be taken seriously, but mass hysteria is worse than the pandemic.
[quote=478728:@Louis Desjardins]
Still, COVID 19 is to be taken seriously, but mass hysteria is worse than the pandemic.[/quote]
no one is counselling hysterical responses
prudent, responsible, medically proven mechanisms to limit the rapid spread of a disease, like avoiding mass gatherings and personal contact, is simply being responsible (see https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fprevention-treatment.html and https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/travel-to-mass-gatherings)
mass hysteria is cleaning out all the toilet paper in the local store in a matter of seconds (which has been occurring in some places in the US from reports I’ve seen on the news)
To some it looks like hysteria run amok.
How would it look any different if it were real?
[quote=478731:@Norman Palardy]mass hysteria is cleaning out all the toilet paper in the local store in a matter of seconds (which has been occurring in some places in the US from reports I’ve seen on the news)
[/quote]
Some places around the world, not just here. And it’s a weird reaction.
+1
I currently have a consulting engagement at a supplier of toilet paper to major US and Canadian retailers. They are currently overwhelmed with the demand. We can also read about mask manufacturers not meeting demand, to the point where medical personnel may run out. This is the kind of mass hysteria that I was indeed referring to. all these abnormal behaviors based on fear.
It is, it’s been happening in the UK too. I understand sensible preparation, particularly if there’s a chance of lockdown but I have no idea why people are panic buying toilet paper of all things.
I havent seen any reports of such things in other countries
Doesnt mean they are not happening - I just havent seen any such reports edit - now I have 
I mostly only listen to the BBC and CBC since they are thorough and usually very accurate (and broadcast retractions quite loudly when they get it wrong)
[quote=478735:@Louis Desjardins]+1
We can also read about mask manufacturers not meeting demand, to the point where medical personnel may run out. [/quote]
My wife works at a medial unit in the local prison and they are already having issues getting gloves and other supplies as distributors have been cleaned out
Masks wont help healthy people - they generally are best for sick people to prevent them spreading the infection (unless you can get your hands on N95 masks - but they have to fit perfectly)
Is this an argument in favor or against believing you?[/quote]
Sounds like getting health advice from Goop
This thread is going to be really interesting to read over in about 2-3 weeks.
However, in the meantime WHO declared CORVID as pandemic, many EU countries declared travel bans (Italy, Austria, Hungary), a lot more foreign offices urged everybody not to travel and to avoid all kind of mass events. All known bigger events so far are postponed or canceled. Google have sent their employees to home. These are strong signals that should be considered.
Indeed. Something important to remember is that the fatality rate depends a lot on the medical system - if it gets overwhelmed (e.g. not enought ICU beds & ventilators, medical people themselves out sick, etc) then the death rate goes way up. This is reportedly happening now in Italy.
If you can slow the disease, you flatten out the curve so the # of people infected at once never overwhelms the system, and the death rate should go way down:
Are you are actually suggesting that we should not worry about any diseases because we survived SARS, MERS, H1N1, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Zika, etc?
[quote=478749:@Michael Diehr] This is reportedly happening now in Italy.
[/quote]
potentially Iran too although they are less forthcoming about their data
When China initially treated it as a political problem they reportedly had high infection & death rates
Once they isolated Wuhan and started treating it as a health emergency their rates slowed and now reportedly are dropping
Simple measures like avoiding/disallowing mass gatherings go a long way to slowing infection rates
Hoping it will go away on its own isnt an effective prevention or mitigation strategy.
EDIT : here’s a good case study of the 1918/19 flu pandemic and the effectiveness of social distancing
St Louis took measures immediately
Philly did not
The graph is their mortality rates and its a huge difference https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/104/18/7582/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1
headline of the day:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/coronavirus-conference-gets-canceled-because-of-coronavirus
The premise of War Of the Worlds is basically this
I heard someone once say: “I plan on being immortal. So far, so good.”
All joking aside, I’m 69 and really torn right now. The question is if I cancel will Xojo provide a full refund?
When I was a kid growing up in the west of Ireland back in the early 1960s, it was common to go to the shop and find they were out of stuff, no butter so you bought marg or olive oil, but when they were out of toilet paper there really was no substitute… if you have ever had to spend a week with toilet paper, you understand.
It’s not appropriate to compare this to the flu. Just ask Italy. China doesn’t shut down a city of 50 million unless there is a systemic risk to their entire country and economy. The US is not far behind.
The transmission rate of the COVID-19 is at least equal to the seasonal flu but some suspect it is much higher. The problems; fatality rate for COVID-19, even if it is 2% is still 20 TIMES higher than the flu which is reported to be .1% (in the US). Also, there is no community immunity for COVID-19 yet like there is the flu. No one has had and built up immunity to this virus. There no vaccines which play a major role in reducing flu infections and reducing symptoms resulting in much better outcomes.
The main concern is it spreads very fast, and overwhelms the healthcare system and then the outcomes become pretty poor. This is exactly what we saw in Italy and China. Treatment options are limited because we just haven’t had time to research the best approaches and vaccines are still months or at least a year away. Anything we can do to delay infection rates helps to reduce potential for collapse of the healthcare system. The graph that Michael D posted above illustrates this.
You might not be concerned about yourself if you get it, but you might consider those you might pass it to; elderly parents, friends or colleagues with compromised immune system or underlying health concerns.
Good luck.
[quote=478737:I have no idea why people are panic buying toilet paper of all things.[/quote]
Because responsible people will stay home and self-quarantine if they get sick, which means no going out for TP. OTOH, I don’t understand why we aren’t reading about this crisis being a windfall for home delivery services like PeaPod etc. Never occurred to me to use one until now, when I’m thinking it might be really useful.
