I am deeply involved into completing an OS X project. I shall return to the Centennial Converter when I am finished.
I have not got into exploring Project Centennial because it failed to work in one or more of the Windows Preview along the way. Now that Microsoft officially confirm the closure of its Finnish smartphone site and letting go of 1850 employees from smartphone business, this is de facto announcement of the end of Windows Phone. This means that Wintel continues to be the Windows platform of choice for pc/notebook/surface. There is now less incentive to write Universal Windows Apps, unless targeting XBox, IoT, etc.
I now doubt there is any more incentive to go Windows Store, since Microsoft’s strategy is to eventually move you to Universal Windows Apps that I now think is failing.
Well, the Windows Store won’t accept anything but UWP apps anyway. Before being cross hardware, what they called “Metro” and then “Windows Store apps” were primarily destined to PC.
Recently, I have seen my sales in there growing steadily. We are still far from the Mac App Store, but it has almost doubled since the arrival of Windows 10. And my apps being fonts for Windows are very much not for XBox or IoT.
Hi Michel,
Thank for sharing your result of the Windows Store. Much appreciated.
I am waiting to see how much of a jump in (Windows) market share is Windows 10 come 29-Jul. Presently I understand is about 20%. Windows Store target is this market share, no more. Using the Centennial Converter now only make the app available on the Window Store for this share (pure Windows 10 only). Yet the converted app is still not Windows Universal App, it is still 100% classic desktop in that it is still Wintel but able to be installed direct from Windows Store.
My thinking is if I can’t use my app on my Windows phone (assuming it is going to be dead), then it defeat the purpose of going UWP. If, for portability, I have to use it on a notebook or tablet then might as well stay as classic Wintel desktop and target a bigger Wintel Windows market share.
I am following the full version of Microsoft Desktop Office (still a Wintel classic desktop app) strategy as an example and a lead on Microsoft’s direction.
Why Windows 10 Offers Two Different Versions of Microsoft Office
My core market beyond fonts is mainly end user. Mileage may vary for other segments.
I feel the Windows market is in a state of flux between the old Desktop apps, mostly Windows 7, and the new hardware and Windows 10, with touch interface and the new Appx (UWP) application model.
I think the UWP-Windows Store apps still represent around 10% of the global Windows apps market. For the moment, the bulk is Desktop and distribution is massively Desktop apps (.Net and Win32). That distribution goes through try-before-you-buy mainly for small guys like me. That means the largest possible presence in all sorts of trialware repositories. That is where my long standing membership in Association of Software Professionals comes quite handy.
But the PC market is evolving fast. Tower Pcs are slumping fast. Laptops hold a little better, but altogether, the PC market went 15% down in 2015. In the meantime, a brand new segment is making rapid progression, that is transformers like the Microsoft Surface, which comes with Windows 10 and touch interface. Likewise, the desktop segment is turning to all-in-one, themselves touch enabled as well. In spite of the resistance from old timers, I think the public of new buyers is massively used to touch . Their smart phones being often the first computer now. They will soon consider older apps with 1985 Windows look like antiquities.
I have already experimented in designing Xojo Win32 apps with the UWP App Design Guidelines. For someone who has some Web design experience, it is quite within reach. Same thing for anybody who touched iOS. In fact, a Xojo app can look and feel just like a UWP one. Once converted, I feel it can very nicely compete in the Windows Store, where all new buyers will naturally go. Even before, I think reviewers will start to appreciate Desktop apps that look modern better than the old fashion interfaces. So I intend to modernize the apps I bring to the Desktop market.
I was here when the big market shift happened between Dos and Windows. I was here when the Mac App Store appeared, and soon represented the same amount of business as my direct Mac software sales. Heck, even if the Windows Store remains small for a while, I can still take the good money people are willing to spend there.
I suspect as more and more people get accustomed to buy in the store, the same thing as what the Mac market experience will happen : direct sales will stop growing. They won’t disappear, but the bulk of expansion will be the online store.
For a while, we will have to ride two horses, not unlike Microsoft does.
As for Windows phone, let us face it. Apart from some idiosyncratic local markets, it is a failure. So were the tablets with no full PC possibilities.
Well let us take a look on the business side and how the promiscuous strategy of Desktop and Universal Apps is seen here. My opinion is based on what I see on my customers mostly owner-run small-sized (5-50 users) and mid-sized (50-250 users) companies. But my girl-friend works in a huge international Inc. so I am lucky to get a glimpse of this perspective too. So here we are of course without warranty or waiving claim to generality.
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The small companies.
They are more or less tightly bound to Microsoft. They simply cannot do anything due to their locally installed business software and due to their infrastructure and/ or lack of expertise. Right now they are the playground and simply not integrated and so forth they do not profit by any touch- or universal app approach. On the other hand they eat what they are fed with. -
The larger companies
The larger ones often have own and able IT departements and mixed IT strategies. Mission critical software runs in isolated or redundant VMs and or own operated terminal services so they are far less desktop-centered. These are the ones with more flexibility in terms of software and hardware and also in terms of UI Concepts. Dominating factor is still business or special purpose software designed for Win32/.NET Windows Desktops Apps. But the Number of supporting Apps and Front-Ends in modern and touch-design is significant higher. But these are the companies with the general aim to reduce any subjugation. By the way It was a nasty move by Microsoft to remove AppLocker functionality from Windows 7 Pro to Windows 10 Enterprise. This is the reason why one of my customer is feeling kind of backstabbed. Right now he is evaluating the migration to Linux Desktops and Libre Office on the Client-Side completly throwing Microsoft out of stock (it will remain on Terminal Services). -
The big Inc.'s
There is a 3rd group of companies - mostly the larger and not owner-managed ones. Banks and paid managers have taken control. They stopped thinking stategically at least in IT matters and at least for everything beyond the contracted time of their hired Managers. Operations are crippeld down to a minimum and everything is outsourced to reduce risks and allocated capital. These are the ones jumping on Cloud- and Azure based Apps. These are also the ones adopting Microsoft latest Touch- Universal and Webbased Apps with highly integrated functions between different devices. But on the other hand they are total dependend on external consultants, technology and the cloud.
The company of my girl-friend for instance is axing SAP (successfully introduced 3 years ago, runs without problems) and moving to Navision now. Imagine, they just burned a Million of EUR for SAP migration, now burning another one for Navision? This is the strongest evidence for not having a long-term strategy or at least missing an adequate agenda. No need to say that these companies are the real cash cow for Microsoft in times where end-user market is more and more declining.
The Bottomline:
The Question is who’s buying your software or services? As you say right, we will have to ride two horses. As Sole Developer running a small business I strongly suggest to keep focus on the companies with own infrastructures and clear agendas. Try to keep your independency. 15 years ago there was only Microsoft. Today the market is getting more and more dynamic and divergent. Nobody can predict the future in the next 15 years.
Another aspect of indie business with focus on end users is that time is in short supply (even for people with no life, yes).
As a result, better cater to the most successful apps and markets. On the MAS, I have about 17 apps, but only 3 bring real dow. The rest is a nice addition to the mix. I would like to print the top one to as many markets as possible. I already sell it direct for Windows Desktop, and I suspect it would do well in the Windows Store. Especially since there are no competition in that segment at all there.
If the Desktop Converter apps go in the WS as promised at the last developer conference, the nice thing is I have little efforts to make to put it there. In that respect, Xojo is a superb competitive advantage : the very same code produces executables for Mac, Windows Desktop, and possibly soon Windows Store.
Then there is the mobile market (mind you I never even considered Windows Phone), where I have been toying with the idea to port these apps to iPad for a while. Chances are I will do that after XDC. And if it works, Android perhaps.
Thoughts in bulk:
- various form factors will coexist. Data consumers (“users”) on tablets, data creators on other platforms. Ultraportables and convertibles competing with tablets and even telephones.
- With various form factors, various OS platforms will coexist. Gone are the days of an all-Windows world. Web interfaces of various kinds will become ever more important, so applications are platform-independent.
- The Cloud: your data on someone else’s computer. I am amazed that companies go for it, but there it is and it is a trend. It does support the multiple platform trend.
- Whoever can predict the market on a 15-year horizon will become filthy rich.