I’ll separate this topic into different areas from what I am seeing in Canada/north america:
Business web: there are some simpler apps which are used for data entry with the internet. Because of security issues and concerns internet based apps are only used to send public data or lost risk information.
Business desktop: high graphic programs such as AutoCAD, simulations, subsurface work are all desktop based. I can’t see this work being performed on the internet as the CPU workload is too high. Desktop programs are going to be around for a very long time. Having said that, the ability to share simple data interconnectivity between groups (ie zoom) is very important.
Personal internet: simple browser fun programs will be using the internet and personal chat.programs in real time. Longer chats require the internet personal devices and are hindered due to short battery life.
Personal desktop: gaming, 3D, virtual reality, all are performed on desktop because of the graphic-intense work and calculations. Additional hardware and extremely high bandwidth use means that thia technology will likely remain in the desktop realm.
Security: home and business security such as video, monitoring all require desktop-like apps with occasional video/audio use. This is heavily desktop apps with some internet use.
Desktop apps are going to be here to stay as more information, sensor, and video data is requested. Connection to the internet is very important for remote monitoring and communication of desktop apps. Internet apps are very simple and may remain so because of internet corporations charging data to the masses. Caps on internet bytes-used will continue to severely delay internet application-only use. Data will be used on local apps and only compressed-secure data will be sent over the expensive, toll-charging internet.
This is what i tend to see in my future-telling crystal-ball.