Stock Market Crashing

I maybe wrong, but a majority of us as small to indie companies. And not publicly traded.

This is an excellent fact. When big tech is in trouble, everybody suffers. But it is much easier to be thrifty and quick when not having a huge structure. Small is beautiful.

In the mean time, the biggest guy on the block must feel some insecurity, when Tim Cook himself mails to Jim Cramer to reassure him about Apple’s China market…
http://moneymorning.com/2015/08/25/does-the-tim-cook-email-to-jim-cramer-warrant-sec-investigation-nasdaq-aapl/

Lucky you, who lives in a country that understands alternative energies.

[quote=209590:@Markus Winter]Wouldn’t be too sure about oil coming back.
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Even the Saudi’s, who are primarily causing the glut, cant afford oil at $40 indefinitely
1-2 years when you look at their balance of trade etc
Now they CAN still make money at $40 where shale gas coal bed & others cant
Much of this seem aimed at getting those producers out of the US scene for some time
The screwy part is if they succeed oil prices rise & they come back because oil prices rose.

All that said, the producers I bought are way undervalued EVEN IF oil stays at $40
Some have cost of production that is in the $12 - $14 range which means at $40 USD they still make money

There are some who are in very vulnerable positions though

[quote=209590:@Markus Winter]Absolute glut, and it is getting worse. Some countries can’t afford reducing production (Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Irak) while others join the market again (Iran). When IS is history the affected countries too will need oil revenue for rebuilding.
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None of those have the capacity that the Saudi’s do to affect world markets like this

[quote=209590:@Markus Winter]On the other hand alternative energies are already big in some European countries while China and the US are waking up to it, further reducing oil consumption.
[/quote]
Consumption is slowing in growth, not reducing in North America, but oil & derivatives are still dominant
Cars, heavy transport trucks, airplanes and large transport trains still use diesel

For certain segments electric works
For others (which consume a huge volume of diesel etc) they aren’t even close to practical
I live right in the middle of that area - farming won’t be electric until you can run an electrical 700+ HP tractor for 24 hours a day at planting time or harvest time
Moving grain and oil is all done using transport trucks - large trucks that again need 700+ HP and move 100 ton loads

North America is vastly different - the USA being one of the worlds top consumers of oil & gas
Certainly in urban areas lots of public transit exist - but there’s still an enormous need for all kinds of other transportation that wont be electric in the short term (5-10) years

Now dont get me wrong - I would love to get my house off the grid & go fully solar.
Given where I live there is no electric car I would seriously consider driving.
Maybe only in the summer and even then it’d be dicey as severe storms can make roads so bad that a truck is required.
My neighbors farm - all of them
They are all concerned about the environment since it directly affects their lives and livelihood - but electric vehicles for their purposes simply aren’t even on the drawing board
Right now its harvest getting started and I hear combines & tractors & large trucks all day every day 24 hours a day - theres no electric that could do what they need.

A look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States#/media/File:US_historical_energy_consumption.png gives you some idea of how far renewables (which includes biofuels) have to go to meet current energy needs just in North America
And then there is China, India and others.
Energy consumption & improved living standards generally correlate
I dont see that trend halting

It may flatten out with the current downturn but overall the long term trend is increased usage

[quote=209590:@Markus Winter] More and more shopping centers here in Germany have free refills for electric cars due to solar panels on their roofs. Admin, business and public transport are potential early adopters.
[/quote]
But not the biggest users :stuck_out_tongue:

http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/country.cfm?iso=DEU
Petroleum and other liquids continue to be Germany’s main source of energy. In 2014, Germany consumed 2.4 million barrels per day, making up 36% of the country’s total primary energy consumption in 2014, according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
The transportation sector accounts for the largest share of petroleum product demand. The government has a goal of putting one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020 and six million by 2030. At the end of 2014, there were approximately 24,000 electric vehicles registered in Germany.

hence one of the reasons I love to deal with them. they are customer focused and not stock market focused.

It seems to me that markets have to correct or there becomes no profit to be made.
The trick it seems is to sell just before the bubble burst then buy…
The thing that bugs me is when the chicken littles run around yelling the sky is falling…
it isn’t it’s just people trying to make money the only way they know how.
So I buy on days like today…
If you want my advice when people are selling buy and when people are buying, sell…

The Brits as testing an in-road charging system. If they ever (10-20 years time) put a Scotland to London charging lane in the M1 (and M25 London ring-road) for electric cars and trucks (for zero or minimal cost) then it would change the dynamics enormously. Arriving in London with 100% charge would be game-changing.

Until the bottom falls out of the stock mar… oh wait… cars :wink:

I do hope in 10-20 years time batteries and components will have made enough leaps forward for phones and tablets to last several days instead of barely enough for down to dusk.

That is, if we still use phones and tablets. Wearable devices are just a step away from implanted devices. I am not going into transhumanism, mind you. Just marry one of those ultra small in ear hearing aids to the Google Smart Contact Lens project when it will contain an imager, add a mike sensitive enough to pick the voice of the wearer, and you got no need for a phone in your hand.

Forgive me, David, but the notion of charging lane may be then just as antiquated as post relays meant for horses.

Often, the main issue with big government projects in matter of computing is that by the time they bear fruits, they are obsolete by one or two generations. That is what distinguishes Silicon Valley from overblown European government – singularly in France --.

It certainly would alter the landscape some
But the electricity still needs to come from some where to run that charging lane
Renewables aren’t supplying enough base load
Wind power only works when the wind blows
Solar when the sun shines
Waves would work all the time but then there are issues around interfering with shipping lanes
Geothermal is not possible everywhere

And storage of such generated power is VITAL to making it possible to outright replace oil coal nuclear with renewables.

Here what happens is when a company proposes to install wind turbines we have to also increase the amount of generation capacity available from coal or gas because should the wind stop blowing all that power has been committed and HAS to come from some where - so the coal plant or gas plant ramps up and generates it when the wind isn’t blowing.
It makes people feel good that they are buying “green power” but the reality is the gas plants & coal plants increase in size as well because of it.

Storage technologies for renewables that can be charged while being drained and can supplying a constant level rather than the peak and valleys of things like wind & solar are required for the renewable replacing conventional sources.

And yes - I’ve invested in those power storage companies too

I would love to see it but I think 10 - 20 years is very optimistic. One of the major routes to Scotland is still single carriageway in a lot of places. If the government can’t be bothered to make it at least a dual carriageway then there’s no chance that a charging system would ever be implemented (the M1 finishes over 100 miles south of the Scottish border).

[quote=209598:@Norman Palardy]@Markus Winter Electric cars are still small but among the fastest growing sectors (Tesla leads) with Apple possibly chipping in (they just got a patent on a fuel cell which would allow using the current infrastructure, fast refills, long reach). More and more shopping centers here in Germany have free refills for electric cars due to solar panels on their roofs. Admin, business and public transport are potential early adopters.
For certain segments electric works
For others (which consume a huge volume of diesel etc) they aren’t even close to practical
I live right in the middle of that area - farming won’t be electric until you can run an electrical 700+ HP tractor for 24 hours a day at planting time or harvest time
Moving grain and oil is all done using transport trucks - large trucks that again need 700+ HP and move 100 ton loads[/quote]

I believe the critical argument that we are forgetting about is where the electric cars get their power. In America, most of that is the following:

Coal = 39%
Natural gas = 27%
Nuclear = 19%
Hydropower = 6%
Other renewables = 7%
Biomass = 1.7%
Geothermal = 0.4%
Solar = 0.4%
Wind = 4.4%
Petroleum = 1%
Other gases < 1%
Source

Natural gas is produced by fracking and offers america energy independence. I would love to see renewables take over, but they are very inefficient and very expensive.

Just my two cents worth.

So I thought it would be interesting to have a look what happened two years later, after this conversation took place?

Would you have lost money, or made money, if you invested during this “crash”?

The purple circle indicates when this discussion took place. If you bought at that point, and had the guts to not sell during the second “crash”, you probably would have made some money.

I heard somewhere the other day, even if you invested directly before every major crash in history, and just never sold your stock. then you still would have been better off than keeping your money in a low-interest bank account. I haven’t verified this fact though.

Looking forward to see where we will be another two years from now.

I actually sold off my gold stock about the time of this “crash” and made 40% on my investment! I love profiting off of hysteria.

Wait until interest rates start creeping back up. Which is probably as inevitable as taxes…

Then you will see real hysteria :wink:

Like they say… there are two primary emotions at play when it comes to the stock market… greed and fear.

If you invested in what? What is the graph of?

The discussion at the end was about traditional energy like oil vs renewable energy like solar and wind.

As far as I can see the traditional ones have not fared well over the last year, the oil price went even lower, and a lot of fracking companies had to give up. If you invested in them your money is gone.

On the other hand Apple and Google now produce renewable energy too. In Germany the infrastructure can’t keep up with the increase in renewable energy production. China wanted what was thought to be an ambitious 20 GW in new renewable energy this year - they got 35 GW within 8 months and are putting the breaks on a bit. The excess solar panels are being sold outside China now, pushing down prices even further.

Not so much fear since people fearful of the market don’t get into it. Greed and panic are more primal in the market. Greed keeps people in stocks past when they should have sold and panic makes them sell during crashes and pull-backs when they should let it ride or buy more. My advice: always, always trade on the value of the company, not on the action of the market.

Exactly, shale oil IS an option at a certain price. If oil goes up to a certain price shale oil comes back on line and floods the market driving the price back down. The Saudis have kept up production to squeeze the shale oil guys out. Many have failed but if the demand comes back up it will take nothing to ramp up capacity if the economics of it make sense.

To me, this downturn is different because past downturns suffered from a supply capacity issue and demand. In this downturn there is way too much capacity to meet current and projected demands. Technology has resulted in too much supply through new methods of extraction. At the same time electrification of vehicles and more fuel efficient vehicles is and will continue to dampen demand. I see oil suppressed for a looooong time…

I wish it were not true as I have family in this business as well as some small positions in some smaller companies. Their stock price has been decimated. Most of these companies are heavily leveraged with debt, so buying now is risking as many will have to restructure or completely fold under bankruptcy. It’s unfortunate, I love low fuel prices but not sure its great for the economy as a whole.

[quote=289104:@Michel Bujardet]Wait until interest rates start creeping back up. Which is probably as inevitable as taxes…

Then you will see real hysteria ;)[/quote]

We have never been in a situation like this. IF they raise interest rates the stock market tanks, housing is negatively impacted, business and consumer borrowing is impacted. The sheer discussion of an interest rate hike has wall street quaking in their boots. Our economy is being artificially inflated by low rates. It is NOT normal.

Short of a modest 100 or 250 basis points change here and there so the FED can try and save face I don’t think interest rates will return where they technically should be in a healthy economy for a very long time.

We are witnessing something that is going to end very badly.

Passenger vehicles are just a small portion of overall transportation energy requirements.
Trucking, airplanes, trains & shipping outstrip passenger vehicle energy consumption by a decent margin.
So much so that until there is some decent percentage of electric vehicles powering those areas the dent made in passenger vehicles is almost negligible.

Here’s stats up to 2011/2012 http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/